Cedar Sable

These figures do not depend on position size. A percentage return would: it is decided by the lot size and money management chosen when the test was run, so the same trades can be made to show a modest gain or a spectacular one without a single entry changing. Profit factor and return-per-drawdown are unaffected by that, and they mean the same thing on one instrument as on another. Both include spread, commission and swap. Because we hand over the strategy itself rather than a locked program, you can re-run it at whatever size you actually intend to trade and see the money figures for yourself.

StrategyQuant divided this backtest on 2024-04-12, holding back 93 trades as out-of-sample — marked on the chart. We do not count it as independent evidence: strategies whose held-back period disappointed were never published, so that period took part in choosing this one. The split is in the trade list, which you can download and check.

Catch the DAX when it breaks out of its short-term range, and lock in gains before risk creeps back in.

This strategy watches the DAX on the hourly chart for moments when price pushes beyond a tight, 8-period volatility band, entering on confirmation of that move rather than anticipating it. Once in a trade, it manages risk using percentage-based levels tied to the entry price, and shifts the stop to breakeven once the trade has moved comfortably in its favor — removing downside risk while leaving room for the position to keep working. Orders that don't trigger within a set window are cancelled automatically, and positions are never held into the weekend.

Entries are placed as stop orders just beyond the edge of an 8-period Keltner Channel, a band built around a short-term moving average and adjusted for recent volatility — designed to catch a genuine breakout in momentum rather than noise inside the range. The initial stop loss is set as 8% of the entry price, while the profit target is set independently at 6% of the entry price, both scaling with the price level rather than sitting at a fixed distance. Once profit reaches roughly 3.5x the 170-period Average True Range, the stop is moved to breakeven, taking risk off the table for the remainder of the trade. Pending orders that haven't triggered within 21 bars are cancelled, and regardless of how a position is performing, everything is closed out ahead of the weekend to avoid holding DAX exposure over the Saturday/Sunday gap.

Instrument / Timeframe

DAX (Germany 40), H1

Entry logic

8-period Keltner Channel breakout

Order type

Stop entry (enters on confirmed breakout, not in advance)

Risk management

8% percentage-based initial stop → 6% percentage-based profit target → breakeven shift at 3.5x 170-period ATR

Time management

21-bar pending order expiry

Session rules

Closes all positions before the weekend

Backtest window

June 27, 2018 - August 24, 2026